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PredictCaseLikelihood - strange result for a simple dataset

Posted By:      Posted Date: August 28, 2010    Points: 0   Category :Sql Server
Hi, I have a some numbers between 1 and 431 and I want to use PredictCaseLikelyHood to determine the chances that any new number is a valid member of the existing set. My current dataset looks like this: 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 25 25 25 25 27 30 30 30 30 35 40 40 42 45 45 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 58 60 73 80 80 89 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 116 140 155 155 200 431   I use clustering to train the model with no holdout set. And I use the Mining Model Prediction Tab to test the PredictCaseLikelihood (normalized) result with a singleton query. As expected, when I enter new numbers between 1 and 431 the returned probability by PredictCaseLikelihood is very high (approx 0.99), however, when I enter positive outliers like 2000, the likelihood is INCREASED to 1, and if I give 2500 and above the likelihood is NaN. Any idea what is causing this strange behaviour? Is my dataset not fit for clustering and in that case why? I use SSAS 2008.   Thanks for any advice, Jørgen      

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